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Global sugar futures saw a modest increase this week, driven by persistent supply concerns. Dry weather in Brazil could impact future cane crops, while India's sugar output is projected to be slightly below initial estimates, tightening global availability.
The European Union's sugar beet acreage is projected to stabilize for the 2026/27 season, following years of fluctuation. Major producers like France and Germany anticipate minimal changes, influenced by stable sugar prices and input cost concerns. This stability is crucial for predictable sugar supply within the region, reducing import reliance.
Thailand, a major global sugar exporter, is confronting potential reductions in its sugar export volumes due to a significant rise in domestic ethanol production demand. The government's biofuel push aims to divert up to 15% of the 2025/26 sugarcane crop to ethanol, impacting the balance between sugar for food and energy. This shift could limit Thailand's ability to capitalize on high international sugar prices and tighten global supply.
Indonesia's ambitious 2028 sugar self-sufficiency target is facing significant delays, according to the Ministry of Agriculture. Challenges in land acquisition and slower private investment are hindering sugarcane expansion and mill modernization, suggesting Indonesia will remain a net importer for the foreseeable future.
Leading food and beverage companies are significantly increasing their procurement of sustainably certified sugar, driven by consumer demand and ESG commitments. A recent report indicates a 20% rise in certified sugar purchases. Industry giants like Coca-Cola and Nestlé are partnering with growers adhering to Bonsucro and Fairtrade standards, aiming to transform the sugar supply chain.
Emerging economies, particularly in Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, are experiencing a significant surge in refined sugar demand. This trend is boosting global import volumes and supporting sugar prices, driven by growth in confectionery, beverage, and food processing sectors. Analysts predict continued growth due to population increase, urbanization, and rising disposable incomes.
As of early 2026, Brazil's favorable ethanol-sugar parity, coupled with robust crude oil prices, incentivizes mills to prioritize ethanol production. This trend is expected to continue, potentially limiting Brazil's sugar output and significantly impacting global sugar supply and prices.
EU sugar beet farmers are demanding significantly higher contract prices for the 2026 harvest due to soaring input costs like fertilizers and energy. Agricultural unions in France, Germany, and Poland are leading the call, warning of potential crop shifts if demands aren't met. Negotiations with processors are underway, crucial for the stability of the EU sugar sector.
Thailand's 2025/2026 sugarcane crushing forecast has been cut to 85-90 million tonnes by TCSC, down from over 100 million tonnes. Prolonged drought and localized flooding impacted cane quality and yield, signaling potential drops in sugar exports and tighter Asian market supply.
Global sugar prices edged up this week, driven by concerns over a tightening supply outlook for the 2025/2026 crop year. Dry weather in Brazil and potential export restrictions from India are key factors, with the ISO revising its deficit forecast upwards.
Global raw sugar prices edged higher this week, primarily driven by persistent supply tightness concerns in key producing regions like Brazil, India, and Thailand. Logistical challenges, adverse weather, and drought have impacted output, leading analysts to predict elevated prices in the short to medium term.
Preliminary estimates from the European Commission indicate a projected decline in EU sugar beet acreage for the 2026/27 marketing season. Farmers are shifting to more profitable crops like grains and oilseeds due to rising input costs and stricter environmental regulations. This trend could increase the EU's reliance on sugar imports and impact regional prices.
Indonesia's ambitious 2030 sugar self-sufficiency goal is facing significant hurdles, a Ministry of Agriculture report reveals. Challenges include limited arable land, climate change impacts, and low smallholder productivity, leading to continued reliance on substantial imports.
Leading sugar processors are increasingly adopting AI and machine learning to optimize their complex supply chains, from cane harvesting to final distribution. This aims to enhance efficiency, reduce waste, and improve forecasting accuracy, ensuring a more resilient and sustainable industry.
Global sugar prices have seen a modest increase this week, primarily driven by concerns over Brazil's upcoming sugarcane harvest. Persistent dry weather in key growing regions could lead to yield reductions for the 2026/27 season, with futures contracts rising. The market is closely monitoring meteorological reports and India's export policy.
Preliminary assessments indicate a potential reduction in EU sugar beet acreage for the 2026/27 marketing year. Factors like persistent diseases, rising input costs, and environmental regulations are pushing farmers towards alternative crops, potentially tightening regional sugar supply and increasing import reliance.
Thailand, a major global sugar exporter, is set to increase exports for the 2025/26 season, driven by favorable weather and an anticipated rebound in sugarcane yields. Initial reports indicate a smooth harvest and significantly higher production, with exports projected to exceed 8 million metric tons.
India's ambitious ethanol blending program is increasingly impacting sugar availability for export, a trend expected to continue until the 2026/27 marketing year. The government's push for a 20% ethanol blend by 2025 diverts sugarcane resources, limiting sugar manufacturing. This policy shift transforms India from a major exporter to a more consistent, albeit smaller, player in the global sugar trade, with significant long-term implications.
Driven by consumer demand and corporate responsibility, sustainable sugar production is gaining significant traction globally. New certification standards, including Bonsucro and Fairtrade, are pushing mills and farms towards environmentally friendly and equitable practices, crucial for long-term industry resilience and market expectations.
Driven by persistently high global crude oil prices and favorable domestic ethanol pricing, Brazil's Center-South sugar mills are expected to prioritize ethanol production in the 2026/27 harvest. This strategic shift could see cane allocation for ethanol reach 55-57%, limiting sugar exports and providing underlying support for global sugar prices.