Global Sugar Prices Rise on Tightening 2026 Supply Outlook

Global sugar prices have shown a modest upward trend this week, fueled by growing concerns over the supply outlook for the 2025/2026 crop year. Analysts from leading commodity firms point to persistent dry weather conditions in key producing regions, particularly Brazil's Centre-South, as a primary factor. While the current harvest is largely complete, the impact on sugarcane development for the next season is becoming a significant worry. Furthermore, India, the world's second-largest sugar producer, has indicated that its export policy for the upcoming season might remain restrictive to ensure domestic availability, potentially limiting global supply. The International Sugar Organization (ISO) recently revised its global sugar deficit forecast for 2025/2026, suggesting a larger shortfall than previously anticipated. This revision has prompted increased buying interest from major importers looking to secure future supplies. Traders are closely monitoring weather patterns and government policy announcements from these pivotal sugar-producing nations, as any significant shift could trigger further volatility in the market. The current sentiment suggests that the era of abundant sugar surpluses might be temporarily receding, paving the way for a more balanced, albeit tighter, market in the medium term. Speculative funds are also reportedly increasing their long positions, adding to the upward pressure.